NOWCAST: NEWS AND NOTES

NWS SOUNDS TORNADO WARNING FOR HURRICANE CHARLEY

When Hurricane Charley was bearing down on central Florida, the NWS Melbourne forecast office had a decision to make. Needing to grab the public's attention quickly, forecasters feared that an update on the dangerous wind conditions in the hurricane's core would get lost in the array of bulletins from their office and the National Hurricane Center. So they decided to issue a tornado warning, in effect sounding alerts in newsrooms across the area.

"We ended up using a wrench for a hammer," says Dennis Decker, the Melbourne office's warning coordinator.

Although there was no tornado, the NWS got the word out that Orlando had about half an hour to prepare for the 100-mph winds of the eyewall.

While hurricane forecasts are improving, there are still limitations, such as delivering an accurate forecast for the storm's strength. In the 10 hours before hitting land, Charley developed from a category 2 to a strong category 4. "That's the nightmare of a hurricane," says Lixion Avila, senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. "With the technology and present information we have, we do not know how to forecast those rapid changes in intensity."

Because people become fixated on the experts' best guess on the path of the hurricane, forecasters feared that the strength, and subsequent danger, was being ignored: thus the tornado warning from the NWS. "When you do something outside of the box like that, you wonder how the people up the chain (of command) in the Weather Service are going to react," Decker says. "They basically confirmed it was a good idea." In fact, the option has been written into the operations plans for this hurricane season, until the weather service can come up with a specific product that would achieve the same effect.

HURRICANE FORECASTERS HANG ONTO "SKINNY BLACK LINE"

One of the concerns after the 2004 hurricane season was the public's understanding and reaction to warnings. Some emergency and weather officials were afraid that people failed to evacuate because they were too focused on tracking the lines instead of the broader areas of possible landfall on either side, often shaded white in the graphics. "Part of the perception problem is that the skinny line wasn't over their area, but yet these people were in our error cone," says Stacey Stewart, a torecaster with the National Hurricane Center.

In an effort to improve forecasts, the National Hurricane Center conducted an outreach campaign this winter, teaching the public how to understand forecasts, including such parts as the "skinny black line." As part of the outreach, the NWS looked into three options for change: using a series of large colored dots to represent the projected path, large circles that would encompass the projected path and the margin for error, or keeping the skinny line. seeking opinions from the public, the news media, and emergency services workers, the decision was made to stick with the line, which was favored by 63%. Scott Kiser, tropical cyclone manager with the NWS, made the announcement at the National Hurricane Conference in March, summing it up as: "Show us your best forecast-we're smart enough to figure it out."

Another development being worked on is a suite of experimental graphics, which could become operational in 2006, showing the chances of experiencing hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds both at the coast and over inland areas.

Each graphic shows cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39, 58, or 74 mph will occur at each specific point on a map during the 5-day forecast period-in effect showing emergency managers and others the chances that their locations will meet or exceed the familiar thresholds of winds within a specific period of time. Individual graphics comprising the odds are created at 12-h intervals (i.e., 0-12, 0-24, 0-36, ..., 0-120 h) and can be animated to reveal the growing threat of a storm.

While existing NHC products convey the uncertainty in the track forecast, they don't account for the uncertainty that also exists in the forecast of a hurricane's intensity and wind radii. For example, the existing strike probability product for the Atlantic basin is a statement about the "close" approach of the center, while the new wind probability maps focus on the weather that an individual storm will bring depending on its strength and size.

Basing the wind probabilities on the track, intensity, and wind-structure forecast, it is the hope of NHC forecasters that people will rethink their perception of the skinny black line and know that a hurricane's effects reach out far from its center.

It will only be when the current hurricane season concludes that results will be revealed, however, and whether the outreach program helped in saving property and lives. "The battle is won during the offseason," says Lixion Avila, senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. "You can't do anything once the hurricane [season] is here; you have to prepare people well in advance."

FEMA's MOVE TO HOMELAND SECURITY QUESTIONED

At the National Hurricane Conference in March, former Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) director, James Lee Witt, spoke out against FEMA being placed under Homeland Security. According to Witt, who worked under the Clinton administration, the move was not beneficial. The arrangement "has minimized their effectiveness in responding, in planning and training, the national hurricane program, everything," Witt said.

FEMA spokeswoman Natalie Rule disagreed, noting that FEMA has taken advantage of Homeland resources such as helicopters, ships, and planes, enabling them to respond more quickly. Rule pointed out that in 2002, before the move, FEMA responded to 49 disasters and 3 declared emergencies; after the merge in 2004, the agency was able to respond to 68 disasters and 7 declared emergencies.

In the wake of hurricane season last year, FEMA was criticized for distributing $30 million to residents of Miami-Dade county, who were not affected by the four hurricanes that hit the state. Local state officials also complained about the delays in getting reimbursement funds for debris removal and cleanup costs.

NEW ZIRCON THERMOMETER REVEALS EARLY EARTH ENVIRONMENT

Using a new kind of thermometer made of zircon, researchers have discovered evidence that environmental conditions on early Earth were characterized by liquid-water oceans and a continental crust similar to those of the present day. The findings are reported in the 6 May issue of Science.

Bruce Watson, a geochemist at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) in Troy, New York, and scientist Mark Harrison, affiliated with the Australian National University and UCLA, developed the new thermometer, which measures the titanium content of zircon crystals to determine their crystallization temperature. Zircons are tiny crystals embedded in rock and are the oldest known materials on Earth-they predate the oldest known rocks on Earth by 400 million years. The ancient crystals provide researchers with a window into the earliest history of the Earth, and have been used to date the assembly and movement of continents and oceans.

"Zircons allow us to go farther back in geologic time because they survive processes that rocks do not," says Watson. "Although they are only a fraction of a millimeter in size, zircons hold a wealth of information about the very earliest history of Earth."

Using the new thermometer, the scientists analyzed zircons ranging in age from 4 billion to 4.35 billion years from the Jack Hills area of Western Australia. The temperature data supports the existence of wet, minimum-melting conditions within 200 million years of solar system formation.

"Our data support recent theories that Earth began a pattern of crust formation, erosion, and sediment recycling as early in its evolution as 4.35 billion years ago, which contrasts with the hot, violent environment envisioned for our young planet by most researchers and opens up the possibility that life got a very early foothold," says Watson.

According to Watson, the research provides important information and a new technique for making additional discoveries about the first eon of Earth's history, the Hadean eon, a time period about which little is known.

WIND CURRENTS MAY HELP FORECAST HURRICANES

The four most destructive hurricanes in 2004 (Ivan, Frances, Charley, and Jeanne) were responsible for $45 billion in damage-nearly all of it in the United States-making the 2004 hurricane season the second costliest insurance event in U.S. history, behind only the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. The destruction wrought by these storms underscored the need for reliable hurricane forecasting, and now two researchers believe they have come up with a system that could help predict the severity of hurricane seasons in the United States.

Mark Saunders and Adam Lea of the University College London studied "steering wind currents" that move storm systems around and found that the currents can be connected to the intensity of hurricane seasons. They used a statistical model to predict the activity of particular seasons between 1950 and 2003 and compared their results to the NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which provides data on hurricane strength and intensity at sea. Their results were consistent with the index 80% of the time in showing above- or below-normal hurricane seasons. Last summer, the index predicted a 70% chance of an above-average hurricane season for 2004 and only a 10% chance of a below-average season.

"Using this index of combined conditions (storm activity and steering currents) can help provide a predictive picture," says Phil Klotzbach, a research associate at Colorado State Univeristy. "Hurricane forecasting is for individual storms, but this metric is for the whole season."

The authors go a step further and use the hurricane activity index to predict the level of hurricane landfalls in the United States-something no other hurricane forecasting team has yet tried. Klotzbach says the research shows some modest skill in determining what could be referred to as "good" or "bad" hurricane seasons, depending on the number of U.S. hurricane strikes, though he cautions that it is "incredibly difficult to predict damage."

However, some are not convinced of the method's accuracy.

"I think the jury is still out on whether or not we can predict landfall," says Richard Pasch of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center. "Numbers don't mean much, especially to individuals. If you're in the hurricane belt then you need to have a plan every year. You don't really look at seasonal forecasts."

But Saunders maintains that his method's analysis of the steering currents makes it uniquely accurate in forecasting storms' landfall. (Other methodologies include measuring sea surface temperatures and pressures and the number of hurricane days in a given year.)

The authors' forecast for 2005: an 80% likelihood that hurricane activity will be above average, and a 70% chance that the landfalling ACE will be higher than usual. (SOURCE: www.geotimes.org)

FIVE THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT KNOW ABOUT SEA LEVEL CHANGES

Researchers studying the East Antarctic Ice Sheet recently revealed some interesting facts on the sheet and its relation to sea levels. The information appeared in a recent issue of the journal Science.

1) The East Antarctic Ice Sheet increased in mass every year from 1992 to 2003. According to the researchers, this increase is most likely attributable to global climate change. The additional mass comes from snowfall. Because the weather at the ice sheet is typically much too cold for snow, the increase in snowfall is thought to be caused by an increase in air temperature in the region.

2) The increase in the size of the sheet has partially offset rising sea levels caused by melting glaciers in other locations. The researchers say this is the only large mass of ice that is adding water rather than losing it.

3) The snowfall adds 45 billion tons of water to the ice sheet each year, which is nearly as much as the amount that melts into the ocean from Greenland's ice sheet.

4) Sea levels are rising by approximately 1.8 mm each year throughout the world. Every millimeter equals about 350 billion tons of water.

5) The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is thickening by about 1.8 cm yr^sup -1^. This growth could offset about 0.12 mm of the aforementioned sea level rise per year. A release of the fresh water in the sheet would raise sea levels by approximately 196 ft, but continued growth of the sheet could counteract much of the anticipated swelling of seas over the next century.

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WRAP IT UP

How important is skiing in some parts of Europe? Important enough to take drastic measures to combat the weather. In an attempt to mitigate the effects of ultraviolet rays, rain, and extreme heat, some resorts in Switzerland and Austria are utilizing polyvinyl chloride foam or giant sheets of plastic foil to cover parts of glaciers above the slopes. The glacier above the Swiss resort of Andermatt was covered with foam at the end of this spring's ski season, and other Swiss resorts were monitoring the results. Austrian resorts, on the other hand, prefer to wrap their glaciers in plastic foil after a test last year proved effective in protecting the snow on a small area of Stubai Glacier Mountain in Tyrol. At least three Austrian resorts are using the foil this year, and the Innsbruck Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics is conducting further tests of various materials.

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ECHOES

"Go talk to the ice, go talk to the wind, go talk to the ocean. There's no negotiation here."

-Actress SALMA HAYEK at a news conference in Iqaluit, Nunavut. Hayek and actor Jake Gyllenhaal, who starred in The Day After Tomorrow, visited the Inuit-controlled territory to learn about the effects of global warming on the Inuit hunting and fishing culture. Both commented that they would continue to press for changes in American energy and environmental policy after witnessing the impact on the Inuit people. (SOURCE: The Washington Post)

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BLOWING OUT THE FIRST PITCH

National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield threw out the first pitch of a Florida Marlins game in Miami on 10 June-ironically, the same day Tropical Storm Arlene began soaking South Florida. The Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm delivered nearly a half-foot of rain to the peninsula, while the Marlins delivered a 12-5 loss to the Texas Rangers. Arlene headed north and came ashore just west of Pensacola, Florida, the following day, with winds around 60 mph.

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ON THE WEB: NASA'S NEW HURRICANE PAGE

NASA recently launched an Internet resource page highlighting the agency's diverse hurricane research. The site opened just in time for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which began 1 June and ends 30 November. The information is available at www.nasa.gov/hurricane.

The Web page is a compilation of data from various satellites and computer models, and it explains why and how NASA investigates hurricanes. It also covers the relationship of NASA's research focus as compared to other agencies' operational emphasis.

The site provides access to data about active hurricanes and famous past storms. Users can search by various hurricane topics, such as how storms form, how they are measured, and how they affect land or ocean life. The multimedia section of the site features animation and satellite, video, and still images of hurricanes.